The characteristic time scale of cultural evolution

Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a “characteristic” time course for the evolution of social complexity in a handful of different geographic areas. Data from the S...

Verfasser: Wand, Tobias
Hoyer, Daniel
Dokumenttypen:Artikel
Medientypen:Text
Erscheinungsdatum:2024
Publikation in MIAMI:18.03.2024
Datum der letzten Änderung:18.03.2024
Angaben zur Ausgabe:[Electronic ed.]
Quelle:PNAS Nexus 3 (2024) 2, pgae009, 1-9
Schlagwörter:cliodynamics; cultural macroevolution; time scale; quantitative history
Fachgebiet (DDC):530: Physik
Lizenz:CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Sprache:English
Förderung:Finanziert durch den Open-Access-Publikationsfonds der Universität Münster.
Förderer: Austrian Research Promotion Agency / Projektnummer: 873927
Format:PDF-Dokument
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:6-67928687552
Weitere Identifikatoren:DOI: 10.17879/17938518049
Permalink:https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:6-67928687552
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    Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a “characteristic” time course for the evolution of social complexity in a handful of different geographic areas. Data from the Seshat: Global History Databank is shifted so that the overlapping time series can be fitted to a single logistic regression model for all 23 geographic areas under consideration. The resulting regression shows convincing out-of-sample predictions, and its period of extensive growth in social complexity can be identified via bootstrapping as a time interval of roughly 2,500 years. To analyze the endogenous growth of social complexity, each time series is restricted to a central time interval without major disruptions in cultural or institutional continuity, and both approaches result in a similar logistic regression curve. Our results suggest that these different areas have indeed experienced a similar course in the their evolution of social complexity, but that this is a lengthy process involving both internal developments and external influences.