The characteristic time scale of cultural evolution
Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a “characteristic” time course for the evolution of social complexity in a handful of different geographic areas. Data from the S...
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Dokumenttypen: | Artikel |
Medientypen: | Text |
Erscheinungsdatum: | 2024 |
Publikation in MIAMI: | 18.03.2024 |
Datum der letzten Änderung: | 18.03.2024 |
Angaben zur Ausgabe: | [Electronic ed.] |
Quelle: | PNAS Nexus 3 (2024) 2, pgae009, 1-9 |
Schlagwörter: | cliodynamics; cultural macroevolution; time scale; quantitative history |
Fachgebiet (DDC): | 530: Physik |
Lizenz: | CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 |
Sprache: | English |
Förderung: | Finanziert durch den Open-Access-Publikationsfonds der Universität Münster. Förderer: Austrian Research Promotion Agency / Projektnummer: 873927 |
Format: | PDF-Dokument |
URN: | urn:nbn:de:hbz:6-67928687552 |
Weitere Identifikatoren: | DOI: 10.17879/17938518049 |
Permalink: | https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:6-67928687552 |
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Onlinezugriff: | 10.1093_pnasnexus_pgae009.pdf |
Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a “characteristic” time course for the evolution of social complexity in a handful of different geographic areas. Data from the Seshat: Global History Databank is shifted so that the overlapping time series can be fitted to a single logistic regression model for all 23 geographic areas under consideration. The resulting regression shows convincing out-of-sample predictions, and its period of extensive growth in social complexity can be identified via bootstrapping as a time interval of roughly 2,500 years. To analyze the endogenous growth of social complexity, each time series is restricted to a central time interval without major disruptions in cultural or institutional continuity, and both approaches result in a similar logistic regression curve. Our results suggest that these different areas have indeed experienced a similar course in the their evolution of social complexity, but that this is a lengthy process involving both internal developments and external influences.