Count Data Time Series Modelling in Julia—The CountTimeSeries.jl Package and Applications

A new software package for the Julia language, CountTimeSeries.jl, is under review, which provides likelihood based methods for integer-valued time series. The package’s functionalities are showcased in a simulation study on finite sample properties of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation and three re...

Author: Stapper, Manuel
Document types:Article
Media types:Text
Publication date:2021
Date of publication on miami:18.06.2021
Modification date:01.12.2022
Edition statement:[Electronic ed.]
Source:Entropy 23 (2021) 6, 666, 1-22
Subjects:count data; time series analysis; Julia programming language
DDC Subject:000: Informatik, Wissen, Systeme
300: Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie, Anthropologie
License:CC BY 4.0
Language:English
Funding:Finanziert durch den Open-Access-Publikationsfonds der Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität Münster (WWU Münster).
Format:PDF document
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:6-37039752424
Other Identifiers:DOI: 10.3390/e23060666
Permalink:https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:6-37039752424
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    A new software package for the Julia language, CountTimeSeries.jl, is under review, which provides likelihood based methods for integer-valued time series. The package’s functionalities are showcased in a simulation study on finite sample properties of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation and three real-life data applications. First, the number of newly infected COVID-19 patients is predicted. Then, previous findings on the need for overdispersion and zero inflation are reviewed in an application on animal submissions in New Zealand. Further, information criteria are used for model selection to investigate patterns in corporate insolvencies in Rhineland-Palatinate. Theoretical background and implementation details are described, and complete code for all applications is provided online. The CountTimeSeries package is available at the general Julia package registry.